Looking Back on RJs 2011 Predictions

A year ago, the January 2011 edition of PM360 Magazine included RJ’s thoughts on what the new year would bring. Now, in January 2012, let’s take a look back and see how well his “crystal ball” hit the mark.

PREDICTION #1
The piloting of mobile programs will become mainstream for pharma. As success is demonstrated, many brands will move beyond pilots and consider making digital, and mobile in particular, a center point of their market efforts. Brands reaching a younger demographic in particular will find they can engage with their audience via mobile, in ways they’ve never been able to engage before. Much like the use of the Internet at large, high-volume mobile early adopters skew younger but will come to represent the population at large over time. Adoption is happening at an even faster pace than web adoption.

PREDICTION #2
The FDA guidance on social media and online, when it finally is released, will likely generate more questions than it answers. Media and technology is changing too quickly for a legacy organization like the FDA to reasonably keep up without major structural changes to the way they conduct business. Unfortunately, the long-awaited guidance will likely have big holes in it and leave many questions unanswered. The fact that guidance is only now being issued, and the process takes so long, makes it inevitable that certain issues won’t be covered. How big was geo-location targeting via mobile (for instance, Foursquare) when the dialogue began? How big will a technology in a lab today be when it finally comes out? Pharma will certainly adopt specific policy changes where it is able but will also be left to interpret many of the specifics without all of the details and answers it might hope for. Get used to operating in a gray area. Technology, media, and media consumption habits are changing too quickly for bureaucratic organizations to define black-and-white rules that have any staying power.

PREDICTION #3
Online video will continue its explosive growth and more important, will be the second wind for large brand marketers to continue the shift from traditional to digital media, as the lines between the two continue to blur. Online video offers many of the same brand-building benefits as television, but with the targeting and measurability of digital online media.

PREDICTION #4
The pharmaceutical industry’s reputation appears to have bottomed out. Just a few short years ago, our industry was vying for last place, in terms of consumer perception, with the likes of tobacco companies. Thanks in part to our industry’s efforts to change perceptions, and thanks in part to the decline of credibility of some other major industries such as banking, pharma’s perceived value with consumers is continuing to improve.

PREDICTION #5
Verifying and authenticating online physician audiences so that advertisers may more precisely target specific customer segments will become increasingly important. Publishers will balance data privacy issues with improved targeting to satisfy advertiser demand for physician-level targeting.

PREDICTION #6
On the heels of No. 5, consumer privacy and the use of behavioral targeting or “interest-based targeting,” whereby users are targeted as a result of their past Internet surfing activity, will come under increased scrutiny. While this practice is widely accepted in online advertising at large, attempting to define acceptable use by disease category creates line drawing problems within healthcare. While it may seem innocuous to retarget a user who’s been to an allergy page, most would agree that retargeting an oncology or HIV patient crosses an ethical line.

PREDICTION #7
Publishers are struggling. Medical publishers are no different. Print advertising revenues, while stabilizing, are down considerably from their peak. Media consumption by physicians has changed, and publishers have not invested in new technologies enough to keep up with those changes. The shift from a push medium to a pull medium has been challenging and will continue to be challenging. Expect to see more sales at low valuations, as well as closures of unprofitable titles.

PREDICTION #8
The economy continues to recover and accelerates the pace of improvement. Specifically, unemployment will fall to under 9% and the GDP will surpass 2.5% by the end of 2011. The year 2012 will be poised to see an economy starting to boom. However, despite an improving economy, downsizing and right-sizing will continue in the pharmaceutical industry, not limited to just the sales forces, but throughout pharma and its supporting industries, due to pipeline weakness.

PREDICTION #9
There will be at least one very big merger/acquisition in 2011 among the struggling old or exciting new online players. Any one of Yahoo, AOL, Twitter, Foursquare, Groupon, or Facebook will be involved in a significant merger with another large online company.

PREDICTION #10
Even with Republicans now holding a majority in the House, there will be no major changes or rollbacks to healthcare reform. Republicans will have bigger issues in focus, which more voters care more deeply about, such as minimizing taxes.